Monday, July 25, 2011

The Debt Crisis and the Fiscal Leviathan State by Richard M. Ebeling

The current fiscal crisis that fills the pages of the newspapers and the news shows on television has all been revolving around the issue of raising the government debt limit.


In fact, the present Congressional-approved debt limit of around $14.3 trillion dollars was passed through in June of this year. The U.S. Treasury Department has been merely juggling the books to shift funds and keep spending money. The government has been using tax revenues that it is legally obligated to set aside for federal employee retirement accounts – and which it is supposed to be “put back” at some point when the government formally has the authority to borrow more and get further into debt. It is the type of thing that if done by a private employer to cover his current business expenses would be labeled misappropriation of funds.


Huge numbers are bandied about in the media and among the politicians concerning how much will be cut from future spending as part of a deal to raise the debt limit. Trillions of dollars are to be eliminated from the government’s budgets in the years to come. Of course, most of those spending reductions are to occur later rather than sooner, with little or no specification of exactly what programs would be cut or precisely when.


Furthermore, when both the Democrats and the Republicans propose anywhere from $1.5 trillion to $9 trillion in less spending in future years and decades they never specify what “baseline” is being used to estimate the spending reductions. What really is being proposed in virtually all these alternative plans is a projected decrease in the rate of increase in total government spending. That is, hardly anyone is suggesting that the “slice” of the national economic pie consumed by government through taxing, spending and borrowing actually should be reduced.


“Entitlements” Mean Plunder

Both Democrats and Republicans take it from granted that “Big Government” is here to stay. Even most of those Republicans who emphasize the need for “reforms” in the “entitlement” programs such as Social Security or Medicare do not challenge the idea that these programs are permanently part of the American political landscape. They merely wish to make them more “financially sound,” or “cost efficient,” or managed in ways that would give those eligible for these programs some “choice” in managing their Social Security accounts or in selecting among doctors and medical treatment.


This is, perhaps, most easily appreciated by the fact that scarcely anyone in the Washington political arena challenges the idea and the use of the word “entitlement.” The Merriam-Webster dictionary defines entitlement as “the state or condition of being entitled.” A “right to benefits specified by law or contract” as in “a government program providing benefits to members of a specified group.” It is based upon the idea, the dictionary tells us, of “a belief that one is deserving of or entitled to certain privileges.”


According to the Merriam-Webster dictionary definition, therefore, in the political arena an “entitlement” is a program of benefits that the government provides to a privileged group, a group that comes to believe that it deserves those benefits, and even comes to consider such benefits as their “right.”


The government, however, cannot provide benefits to any privileged group in the society that does not reciprocally obligate others to supply the required resources, goods, or financial means to cover what has been promised. Since government has no supply of resources, goods or sums of money that it does not first tax or borrow from others, any such entitlement compels some other people in society to provide the means necessary for the government to meet its promises to the privileged groups.


That is, one group’s privilege entails a compulsory obligation on others that is imposed and enforced through the government’s police power to tax and garnish the income and wealth of any and all members of society. Thus, society becomes divided into two groups: taxpayers and tax receivers; the unprivileged and the privileged; those who are forced to give up a portion of the production, income and wealth they have honestly earned in the peaceful transactions of the market place and those who have that production, income and wealth transferred to them through the power of the state.


This is, of course, what the famous 19th century French free market economist, Frederic Bastiat, referred to as legalized plunder. The government, instead of acting as a protector and guardian of each individual’s right to his life, liberty and honestly acquired property, becomes the most powerful and intrusive violator of people’s liberty.


The government’s concentrated, monopoly power over the use of physical force is far greater and far more dangerous than even the worst of any private individual or private group that attempts to plunder and abuse innocent individuals in society. But equally important, government is the only user of force in society that widely succeeds in indoctrinating and persuading the large majority of the people under its jurisdictional control that it is “just” and “right” that it plunder one part of the population for the privileged benefit of another portion of society.


Political Rule vs. Individual Self-Rule

In earlier times, governments acquired legitimacy and acquiesce of its subjects by insisting on the divine right of kings. It took many centuries to overthrow the belief that monarchs ruled, regulated, and taxed because of an ordination from God. With the end or weakening of monarchy in the 18th and 19th centuries, a new ruler was ordained with a nearly equally divine political authority to demand obedience from the citizenry – the divine right of “the people.”


Democracy replaced monarchy as the legitimized basis of political power. If “the people” ruled by their own democratic vote, how could they ever tyrannize and plunder themselves? How can a man abuse himself, when his actions are dictated by his own will?


In the United States, the idea of “self rule” originally had a different meaning. It did not primarily or exclusively mean political self-rule through a voting process. It meant the right of each individual to have the freedom to rule over himself. When the American Declaration of Independence spoke of “unalienable rights” possessed by the individual to his life, liberty and pursuit of happiness, the Founding Fathers were saying that each man owns himself, and had the right to live his life as he chooses, as long as he peacefully goes about his chosen business, and respects the equal rights of others to do the same.


The role of government in this uniquely American conception of individual rights and personal self-rule was that of protector and securer of each person’s liberty. The political authority was to be a servant of each sovereign individual, who chooses his own goals and purposes in life and who pursues them with his own mental and physical energies. When he needs the assistance and association of others to attain some of his purposes the method is freedom of choice and voluntary exchange.


Socialism and the Anti-Capitalist Mentality

How, then, did America move away from the idea of sovereign and self-ruling individuals with government limited to a small though essential number of rights-protecting functions, to the notion of the government as itself the sovereign in the name of “the people,” with the individual reduced to the servant who is required and expected to pay any tax and bear any regulation in the name of a “common good” or “national interest,” or “general welfare”?


In a word, the answer is socialism. This year marks the 20th anniversary of the end of the Soviet Union. After the reality of almost 75 years of socialism-in-practice in the Soviet Union and elsewhere around the world, very few people any longer believe in and yearn for dictatorial rule by a Communist Party claiming to know the “inescapable” laws of history; few want to live under a system of comprehensive and all-encompassing socialist central planning. Experience has persuaded enough people around the world that such a system leads to nothing but brutal tyranny, along with economic stagnation and poverty.


While the ideal of Soviet-style socialism and central planning has been rejected and has few explicit adherents nowadays, what does continue to endure and influence general attitudes about political power, economic policy and the role of government in society, both in the United States and around the world, is the socialist critique of capitalism and the free market society.


The rationale for the vast network of government welfare programs as well as regulation and control over private enterprise is based on the socialist analysis of the market economy. When private enterprise is left free, the socialists claimed, the selfish profit motive guides businessmen to act in ways that harm the common good or general welfare. Workers searching for employment will be exploited and abused by greedy employers unless government protects them with workplace rules and regulations, including the establishment of a “fair” wage.


The state must take on the role of paternalistic provider of health care, old age pensions, unemployment insurance, public housing, education, and a wide variety of other social services. Why? First, under unrestrained capitalism workers will not earn enough to provide these necessities for themselves. Second, private enterprises driven by mere self-interest will inevitably fail to supply these goods and services in sufficient quantity and quality.


Individuals, in other words, cannot be trusted to rule over their own lives, to make their own choices, and to interact freely with their fellow men in a society of liberty. Collective control, under the cover of the democratic process, needs to restrain and restrict the individual’s sovereignty in the arena of his own affairs.


In the name of protecting people from such unrestrained capitalism, governments everywhere, including n the United States, have created ever-expanding bureaucracies that regulate nearly every aspect of our lives. As a consequence, our world today is in the grip of a continuing ideology of anti-capitalism. State bureaucracies ruling through anti-market policies have grown into ideological and political elites who arrogantly presume to know and dictate how we should all live and work. Those holding political power may be compared to the nobility of old, before whom the commoners had to grovel so they might live and prosper.


Capitalism as the Liberator of Man

Are these accusations against capitalism and the free society justified? Absolutely not. Indeed, never has an historical record been more twisted and distorted that this socialist critique of the free market society.


Beginning in the 18th century and throughout the 19th century, capitalism and the political philosophy of classical liberalism that accompanied it insisted on the freedom and dignity of the individual. The classical liberals campaigned against and brought about an end to human slavery, first in Europe and then around the rest of the world. These free market liberals called for ending the rule of kings and princes or at least restraining their powers through constitutional government and peaceful elections. It called for impartial rule of law, and the end to torture and other cruel punishments.


The classical liberal and free market agenda included the abolition of all privileges, favors, and subsidies that benefited the aristocracy, as well as the end to all monopolies created by government regulation and protection. It called for free enterprise, freedom of trade and occupation, and freedom of movement. In other words, classical liberalism and capitalism have been an ideology for the liberation of man from political oppression and economic poverty. It has been the foundation for human freedom and material prosperity in the modern world. It has served as the foundation of the American Republic.


Capitalism in the 19th century did not doom the worker to a life of perpetual poverty. Instead, the expanding market economy kept creating new and better-paying employments as the decades went by. It produced the wealth and rising income that resulted in the emergence of a phenomenon completely new to human history: a self-supporting and educated middle class that grew more and more as the lower classes bettered their economic well-being.


Through private investment, capitalism kept raising the productivity of labor to new heights. Parents were able to earn enough so their offspring did not have to join the work force at an early age. This produced something unique in history: childhood, a time when the young could experience the innocence of play and the opportunity of schooling before entering the world of work.


Classical liberalism and the market order fostered the private associations and charitable organizations that enabled the working poor to provide medical care, pensions, and education for their families. Famines disappeared; poverty was dramatically and continuously reduced; and hard and long hours of work were slowly but surely eased and shortened to a degree never before experienced. Capitalism has been the liberator of mankind. The great history and glorious achievements of that earlier free market capitalist epoch must be relearned once again in a society that knows little of the system that has provided the comfort and standard of living that too many of our fellow countrymen take for granted.


The Dangerous Growth of Government

For more than a hundred years, now, the anti-capitalist mentality has undermined the original American political philosophy of individual rights and economic liberty. In its place has grown a politics of paternalism and dependency. This has easily played into the hands of those who have desired political power under the umbrella of democracy, and by those who have desired and now believe that they have an entitlement – a “right” – to redistributive largess because they cannot imagine life without those government “safety nets” and who believe that a free market, limited government world would be cruel, uncaring, and inhumane to them and others.


In 1902, government spending in the United States as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was only slightly more than 7 percent. In 1930, before the massive growth in the size and reach of government during the Great Depression and Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal, government spending as a percentage of GDP was only a bit more than 10 percent. In other words, just 75 years ago, 90 percent of the valued production of the U.S. economy was used and spent in the private sector.


Today, government in America spends over 40 percent of the country’s GDP, the private sector uses and consumes only 60 percent of the economy’s valued output. The government’s share over this 75-year period has increased four-fold, and the private sector’s use of its own produced and valued output has decreased by 30 percent over this period.


Federal government spending in 2010 was $3.4 trillion. In 1930, the Federal government spent $156.7 billion (in 2010 dollars). Thus, government spending today is 22 times more than it was 75 years ago. In 2010, Federal government tax revenues were $2.16 trillion. In 1930, the Federal government collected $176 billion in taxes (in 2010 dollars). Government taxes collected is 12 times larger today than in 1930.


What explains the difference in the growth in government spending versus the growth in taxes collected by the U.S. government: the Federal government’s deficit spending. In 1980, the accumulated Federal debt (in 2010 dollars) was around $3 trillion. In 2001, it had increased to around $7 trillion (in 2010 dollars). Today, Uncle Sam’s debt is over $14.4 trillion, more than double what it was ten years ago. In 1980, the government’s debt amounted to less than 30 percent of GDP; today, it is rapidly approaching 100 percent of U.S. gross domestic product.


America’s Unwritten Fiscal Constitution

Through most of the first 150 years of U.S. history, the federal government abided by what Nobel Economist, James Buchanan, called America’s “unwritten fiscal constitution.” There is nothing in the U.S. Constitution that requires the government to balance its budget. But during that first century and half the fiscal rule was that the government should limit its spending to the narrow functions spelled out in the Constitution, and should not burden current and future generations with a debt due to deficit expenditures in the past. If an emergency, such as war, were to make it necessary for the government to borrow to cover unexpected and immediate higher spending, that government should run budget surpluses when the emergency had passed to pay off that debt. It should then return to the balanced budget rule.


The free market economists of the 19th century understood that when any government expenditure must have a matching tax attached to it, the citizenry knows directly and in full what any proposed government program will and must cost. Any extravagant proposals for more and bigger government spending, carries with it, under a balanced budget, clear and explicit information for the citizens and the voters about what and whose taxes will have to be raised and by how much.


Voters may still support such an increase in government spending, but there is no way to hide from them what the cost will be in terms of less money and wealth in their pockets because taxes will have to be raised to cover the expenses of the expanded government largess. The unwritten fiscal constitution of a balanced budget rule served as an imperfect, but nonetheless effective constraint on growth in government for a good part of American history.


Keynesian Economics and Deficit Spending

The balanced budget rule was thrown to the wind beginning in the 1930s. A major influence in bringing this about was the Keynesian Revolution in economic theory and policy. Named after John Maynard Keynes who first formulated this new theory in his 1936 book, The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, it was argued that a market economy is inherently unstable and susceptible to wide and prolonged fluctuations in employment and production. The remedy was for government to run budget deficits during times of recession or depression to boost spending and recovery in the economy, and run budget surpluses during boom times to dampen inflationary tendencies and pay off or reduce any accumulated debt.


Rather than balance the budget annually, the Keynesians said the budget should be balanced over the business cycle, with wise and far-sighted government policy makers using their theories to manage and manipulate government spending, taxing and borrowing to maintain full employment, economic stability, and long-term economic growth. There was a high degree of arrogance and pretense among these Keynesian economists that they had discovered and could successfully implement a “holy grail” of economic salvation against the uncertainties and vicissitudes of much of everyday economic life.


But while the Keynesians dreamed dreams of mastering and manipulating the market economy through the miracles of “activist” monetary and fiscal policy, ordinary politicians looking for ways to get elected and reelected, found in the Keynesian Revolution their own miracle.


Here was a way to offer their constituents something for nothing. In the name of “creating jobs,” fostering economic growth, and supporting a business cycle-free economy, they could offer seemingly unending spending with no need to attach a tax bill for what was being promised to voters.


More welfare redistribution; more public housing; bigger spending on public education; increased funds for the arts or scientific research for the lucky recipients of government grants; larger subsidies for selected groups of producers in the political candidate’s electoral district; expanded government bureaucracies to regulate and control various aspects of commercial and business life to benefit various special interest groups trying to manipulate the market more to their own advantage through government power.


The possibilities seemed endless, and all with a taxpayer price tag far smaller than the actual cost for all the wondrous spending that was offered to growing segments of the society. Indeed, those politicians could not have done it, if the constraint had not been lifted on government’s ability to borrow and spend.


Government deficit spending has opened a Pandora’s box of political pandering and plundering. Those who are promised government expenditures, programs, and various other benefits receive them in the present and over a period of time leading up to the next election that the politicians who have supplied these political goodies are hoping to win.


The Costs of Borrowed Money

The full cost of funding them only emerges over many years or decades, as the annual deficits add to the accumulating debt, with the resulting interest and periodic principle payments coming due. Currently, the United States government is borrowing around 40 cents of every dollar that it is spending. Taxpayers do not feel the direct and immediate impact of the deficits, since they are not being taxed enough to cover that 40 percent of those government’s expenditures.


It should be pointed out and not forgotten, however, that the citizenry does pay a price in the present for the deficits that the government is running. The government may not tax the full amount needed to cover its total outlays but to have the funds to cover the remainder of its expenditures it must borrow the difference. That deficit-funding gap recently has equaled a trillion dollars or more a year.


Every dollar borrowed by government, and the real resources that sum of money represents in buying power in the marketplace, are part of the society’s scarce means of production not available for private sector use. There is one dollar less of real resources available for private sector investment and capital formation, private sector technological research and development, or private sector expansion of output and job creation.


The costs of funding the deficits and the accumulated debt are costs not only on future taxpayers. They are costs on the current population who are that much poorer and who leave that much less wealth and productive capability to the next generation, because it has been taken out of the hands of private enterprise to instead cover the government’s present-day giveaways.


From Limited to Big Government

What enabled America’s earlier unwritten fiscal constitution to work in the 19th and early 20th centuries clearly was not because it was written in stone – because it was not. It was followed because it was generally considered to be the “right thing to do.” And it was considered the right thing to do, because it was part of a set of political and economic ideas based on the belief that governments were not supposed to give various special interest groups financial and regulatory favors and privileges at the expense of other members of society.


The practice of limited government meant limited government spending. There was no need to try to hide what government was costing, when what the government spent money on was, for the most part, the few enumerated functions assigned to the Federal government under the Constitution.


When the World Almanac was first published in 1869, all of the offices and activities of the Federal government literally fit on one page; and half of that single page was filled with the names of U.S. ambassadors to foreign countries. Today, if you pick up a copy of the World Almanac, you will find that the offices, bureaus, departments, and agencies of the Federal government take up several pages with hundreds of entries in very small print.


Big Government has brought with it a big and growing debt because the entitlement society, the redistributive society, the political plundering society has no limit once government is viewed as paternalistic provider rather than an essential but more modest protector of each individual’s life, liberty and property.


No deals in Washington, D.C. among the political culprits, whose interactions with special interest groups have created and maintain the Fiscal Leviathan State, will solve America’s debt and deficits problem. What we need is a change in the ideas and beliefs among many of our fellow citizens. As long as too many of our fellow Americans believe they are “entitled” to the income, wealth and productions of others, and as long as so many of our fellow Americans accept either through ignorance or guilt that they have an obligation to be taxed, regulated and plundered to fulfill those entitlements little change can or will happen to radically shift the direction we are moving in.


Making the Moral Case for Liberty

Another way of saying this is that we must reawaken the moral case for liberty. The starting point for such a moral reawakening is the rejection of the collectivist conception of man and society. Collectivists of all types—socialists, communists, fascists, interventionists, and welfare statists—presume that the group, the tribe, the “nation,” or the social “class” takes precedence over the individual. He is to serve and if necessary sacrificed for the “common good” or “general welfare,” since the individual has neither existence nor “rights” separate from the collective to which he belongs.


Compare this with the unique and starkly different philosophy of man and society captured in the American Declaration of Independence: “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness. That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed.”


Rights precede government, and are not something given to man by any political authority. Each of us possesses rights that may not be taken away or undermined by those in political power. We all possess an inalienable right to our life, liberty, and property. We own ourselves, and by extension we have a property right to what our creative minds and efforts have peacefully produced. We may not be enslaved, sacrificed, or plundered by others, whether they are private individuals or organized governments.


The individual, not some mythical collective, is the center and starting point of society. The free market is the arena in which people form relationships for mutual benefit on the basis of voluntary exchange. The free man finds his own meaning for life, guided by the philosophy or faith of his choice. He refuses to coercively impose his will on others, just as others may not use force against him. He persuades others to live and act differently through reason and example, and not with the bullet or the bayonet. And no political authority can make claims against his life, liberty, and honestly acquired property, because the function of a limited government is to secure his freedom from predators and plunder.


This is the philosophy of individualism and capitalism that must be reawakened in our fellow men if we are to free our society from the stranglehold of Big Government and its ocean of debt. It requires a confident belief that we are right, that both reason and history have demonstrated the value and benevolent results of what Adam Smith once called “the system of natural liberty.”


The Importance of the Battle of Ideas

Such an appeal to a battle of political and economic ideas may seem unrealistic or irrelevant given the urgency of our political and fiscal problems. But the social political and economic crises of our time are the outcome of an earlier battle of ideas that the enemies of freedom and capitalism succeeded in winning to a great extent. They indicted the society of liberty; they distorted the reality of capitalism and its brilliant triumphs in freeing man from poverty; and they imbedded in the minds of many the conception of political entitlements that serve the power ends of political paternalists and which requires the plundering of the peaceful and productive members of society.


There is fiscal crisis – the Western world in reaching the limits of how far it can live on borrowed money, and based on unrealistic promises and immoral premises. Our society is living under a paternalistic and plundering political system that threatens to bring its productive potentials to a halt. And in the extreme, it could lead to a situation of capital consumption, under which the government’s taxing, spending, and borrowing policies take so much away from the private sector that it becomes impossible for private enterprises to maintain the productive capacity upon which our standard of living is dependent. Civilizations have regressed in the past. And it can happen again.


Whether the final phase of the fiscal crisis of the government’s redistributive and entitlement system is reached next year, or in two years, or in five years, the question then will be, what will follow the failure and collapse of the Fiscal Leviathan State? Our society will stand at a crossroads. And when that time comes it is essential that there are enough people who understand, can explain, and are willing to defend the ideas and ideals of individual rights, economic liberty, and the free market system. If not, the future may see a tragic return to a less civilized and much poorer past.

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

America's Fiscal Folly and Squandering of the "Reserve Fund" by Richard M. Ebeling

The economic crisis through which the United States and much of the rest of the world are now passing is not another supposed instance of the “failure” of unrestrained capitalism. It is the failure of the government’s own policies. In other words, it is a crisis of the Interventionist State.


The recession has been the inevitable outcome of the prior artificial investment boom and housing bubble, which were caused by the misguided and highly expansionary monetary policy of the Federal Reserve between 2003 and 2008. The money supply was increased by nearly 50 percent during this five-year period, and key interest rates, when adjusted for inflation, were at or below zero. Investment and housing decisions were radically out of balance with available real savings to sustain such long-term financial commitments. Consumers and homeowners were induced by low interest rates and easy mortgage policies to get in way over their heads.


The duration and slowness of the recovery, and especially the sluggish delay in anything approaching “full employment,” is also the consequence of the government’s policies. The Federal Reserve went on another massive monetary expansionist binge that has increased the money supply in the form of additional bank reserves by well over $2 trillion in just a less than three years. Interest rates have, again, been kept at or even below zero when adjusted for inflation, with the affect of continued highly distorted investment and housing sectors.


Fiscal Folly and Burdensome Government

All of this has been exacerbated by the U.S. government’s radically loose fiscal policies. But all that the massive trillion-dollar-a-year government deficits for the last three years have done is to accelerate a disastrous trend in government budget financing that had been growing worse for nearly a decade. When George W. Bush entered the White House in 2001, total accumulated government debt stood at $5 trillion. When Bush left office in January 2009, the government’s debt had more than doubled to over $10 trillion.


Now in the less than the three years of the Obama administration, Uncle Sam’s debt stands at over $14.5 trillion – and growing. This debt practically is equal to the estimated total market value of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a level not seen since the cost of fighting the Second World War. The government, right now, is borrowing approximately 40 percent of all the money it is spending. Under current spending projections government debt will total well over $20 trillion by 2016.


For decades, the United States government has been gobbling up more and more of the wealth and resources of American society. If we take a long-term perspective, in 1902, all levels of government in the U.S. only absorbed slightly more than 7 percent of GDP. By 1998, nearly a century later, all government expenditures as a percentage of GDP had grown to 28.1 percent; ten years later, by 2008, government spending had increased to 38.3 percent of GDP. And in 2010, it has approached 43 percent of GDP. Last year, in other words, 43 cents out of every dollar was spent either by local, state or federal governments.


To at least partly fund these growing expenditures, taxation had eaten into more and more of the American taxpayers’ income and wealth. Again, looking back to over a century ago, in 1902 Federal, state and local taxes combined took only 6.7 percent of GDP. Almost a century later in 1998, tax-cost of all levels of government in the U.S. had increased to 29.2 percent of GDP. This has fallen closer to 25 percent of GDP in the last few years due to the recession, with a decline in taxable incomes and corporate profits. But as we saw, this has not stopped the government’s growth in spending by borrowing, instead, all that it has needed.


Government spending on defense, entitlements (Social Security and Medicare), and illusionary and counter-productive “stimulus” programs has been and is pushing the United States into the fiscal crisis that threatens America’s economic future.


In spite of the rhetoric from a wide variety of politicians and media outlets, the problem is not that taxes are too low or that “the rich” are not paying their “fair share.” According to data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), among twelve prominent members of the organization (Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Sweden Switzerland, and United States), the U.S. had the third lowest personal income tax rate in 1990 (with only Switzerland and Sweden’s rates being less). By 2010, the U.S. was among the higher personal income tax rate nations, along with France, Italy and the Netherlands. Even Mexico’s personal income tax rate was noticeably less than America’s


Among the same group of OECD members the U.S. corporate income tax rate was far below Germany, Sweden, Japan, Italy, and Ireland in 1990. By 2010, the U.S. corporate income tax rate was exceeded only by Japan’s, with Canadian, French, Irish, Italian, Mexican, Dutch, Swedish, and Swiss corporate income tax rates being anywhere between 10 to 50 percent less than America’s.


“Soaking the Rich” – Still Not Enough

Nor are “the rich” not paying some hypothetical “fair share.” In 1990, those in the top five percent of income earners in the United States earned about 28 percent of total gross personal income in the country. In that same year, those in this income category paid around 42 percent of all personal income taxes collected by the government.


In 2008, that top five percent of income earners earned around 32 percent of total gross personal income in America. But their personal income tax burden had increased to nearly 60 percent of all personal income taxes collected by the government.


Thus, while the “share” of personal income earned in the U.S. in the hands of this top five percent had increased by 14 percent between 1990 and 2008, their tax burden rose during this time period by nearly 43 percent.


Indeed, the top ten percent of all personal income earners paid 70 percent of all personal income taxes collected by the government in 2008, compared to 55 percent in 1990. The top 50 percent of all those earning personal income in 2008 paid 97 percent of all personal income taxes collected that year. And the latest data suggests that since 2009, at least 51 percent of all American households now pay no personal income tax. A minority of income earners now provides all the income taxes paid to partly defray the cost of government in the United States.


U.S. Spending and Debt: More than the Economy Can Bear

Government spending and the accumulated debt is fast approaching more than the American economy can bear. What is collected in both personal and corporate taxes is not enough to cover all that the government spends because government’s promises to an ever-expanding spider’s web of special interest groups vastly exceeds what the country can afford to pay out of currently earned income. If the government attempted to raise that additional 40 cents out of every dollar it presently spends through borrowing by raising taxes it would bring the economy to a screeching halt.


It would soon be discovered that “soaking the rich” even more would barely provide a handful of drops to cover the spending in excess of taxes collected. It would have to be admitted that the only source of additional government revenue to fill the deficit gap would be significantly higher taxes on the broad middle class of income earners, as well as adding to the tax rolls many of those currently paying no taxes.


Income earners would save even less than now; incentives and resource availability for private sector investment in new or existing businesses in the U.S. would be crushed – along with any market- based job creation. The capital for research and technological development would dry up even more in America, and capital that could get away would flee to more business-friendly countries.


Nor can the borrowing binge continue for very much longer. Net interest payments on U.S. government debt presently equals about 1.3 percent of GDP. Under current borrowing projections, with no change in planned government spending, by 2020 interest payments on the government debt would nearly double to 3.2 percent of GDP. Between 2011 and 2020, this would mean that the United States government would have to pay a total of $4.8 trillion in interest payments.


And this ignores the costs of Uncle Sam’s unfunded liabilities for Social Security and Medicare, which, under current law and eligibility rules, is estimated to equal more than $65 trillion over the next seven decades.


For most of the post-World War II period, the U.S. national “economic pie” was able to grow fast enough due to private sector capital investment, technological innovations, and improvements in the skills and education of the American work force that it could offer a rising standard and improved quality of living for virtually everyone in the country.


It was able to do this in spite of the fact that the government’s “slice” of the national economic pie and its cost on the private sector kept growing. Growing government costs in the form of rising taxes; increased expenditures and welfare transfers; nearly annual deficit spending; growing regulations and restrictions on competitive private enterprise; along with bouts of serious price inflation and Federal Reserve-induced business cycles.


Exhausting the “Reserve Fund” of the Market Economy

We seem now to be reaching the end of what Austrian economist, Ludwig von Mises, referred to as the “reserve fund” of the market economy. The rate of growth in government taxing, spending and borrowing, and the intrusiveness of government regulations, controls, and prohibitions on the innovative competitiveness of market enterprises is resulting in a situation in which that government slice of the national economic pie is growing so much that it is seriously slowing down the ability of the economic pie to expand.


The “reserve fund” to which Mises referred is that surplus of productive output that a competitive market is able to annually generate in excess of maintaining existing capital intact and preserving present levels and standards of living. That “reserve fund” provides the resources and financial means to invest in new, more and better capital equipment; to invest in training and improving the skills of the work force, so wages over time can rise due to gains in more valuable “human capital”; it generates the greater output of desired consumer goods and services in terms of quality and variety, as well as quantity. It is the economic “fountain” from which flow the advancements in the material and cultural potentials of our civilization.


However, this “reserve fund” does not just exist “out there” to be taxed and squandered away through the fiscal spigot of government largess. It only exists through the intentional choices and deliberative decisions of members of society to save rather than consume; to invest and bear the risks of an uncertain future with the hope of profits if wise business decisions are made; to make long-run plans and develop new and innovative technologies and ways of organizing enterprises to supply those more and better consumer goods over many tomorrows.


The sluggish growth and stagnant labor market are possible indications that government taxing, spending, borrowing, and regulation are absorbing and weakening so much of the society’s productive resources and wealth that the private sector is not able to expand fast enough to counteract the “drag” of that burdensome government slice of the national economic pie.


Austria’s Past in America’s Future?

Where can this all lead? In 1930, just as the Great Depression was beginning, Ludwig von Mises authored a study of the taxing, spending, and regulatory policies that the governments of his native Austria had been following in the 1920s. He was able to show, based on the historical evidence, that fiscal and regulatory burdens on businessmen, entrepreneurs, and investors – “the rich” – had been so great during that period that not only had capital formation and net investment stopped. The fiscal and regulatory drag had actually resulted in capital consumption. The capital stock could not be maintained because of insufficient reinvestment and the productive capacity of the Austrian economy declined; standards of living decreased for many in society as the burden of government, in fact, resulted in the Austrian economy going into “reverse.” Fiscal mismanagement in interwar Austria, Mises explained, had resulted in the country's governments consuming a portion of the "seed corn," without which the existing standard and quality of life in a society cannot long be maintained.


In 1935, a summary of Mises’ findings was published in English by a former student of his, Fritz Machlup, in an article on, “The Consumption of Capital in Austria” (Review of Economic Statistics, January 15, 1935). Machlup concluded by saying:


Austria was successful in pushing through policies that are popular all over the world. Austria has the most impressive records in five lines: she increased public expenditures, she increased wages, she increased social benefits, she increased bank credits [monetary expansion], she increased consumption. After all these achievements she was on the verge of ruin.


It is easy enough to say and want to believe, “It can’t happen here.” But like causes do tend to bring about like effects. And unless the current fiscal folly is brought to an end, America’s “reserve fund” of productive potential may also be squandered away through government taxing, spending and borrowing, leaving us with poorer tomorrows than our more prosperous past and present.

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Monetary Policy, the Federal Reserve, and the National Debt Problem by Richard M. Ebeling

(The following testimony was delivered before the House of Representatives Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy and Technology, chaired by Congressman Ron Paul (R-Texas), on “Monetary Policy and the Debt Ceiling: Examining the Relationship between the Federal Reserve and Government Debt,” in Washington, D.C. on May 11, 2011)



“I place economy among the first and most important virtues, and public debt as the greatest of dangers to be feared . . . To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with public debt . . . we must make our choice between economy and liberty or confusion and servitude . . . If we run into such debts, we must be taxed in our meat and drink, in our necessities and comforts, in our labor and in our amusements . . . If we can prevent the government from wasting the labor of the people, under the pretense of caring for them, they will be happy.”

Thomas Jefferson



Government Debt and Deficits

The current economic crisis through which the United States is passing has given a heightened awareness to the country’s national debt. After a declining trend in the 1990s, the national debt has dramatically increased from $5.7 trillion in January 2001 to $10.7 trillion at the end of 2008, to over $14.3 trillion through April of 2011. The debt has reached 98 percent of 2010 U.S. Gross Domestic Product.


The approximately $3.6 trillion that has been added to the national debt since the end of 2008 is more than double the market value of all private sector manufacturing in 2009 ($1.56 trillion), more than three times the market value of spending on professional, scientific, and technical services in 2009 ($1.07 trillion), and nearly five times the amount spent on non-durable goods in 2009 ($722 billion). Just the interest paid on the government’s debt over the first six months of the current fiscal (October 2010-April 2011), nearly $245 billion, is equal to more than 40 percent of the total market value of all private sector construction spending in 2009 ($578 billion)[1]


This highlights the social cost of deficit spending, and the resulting addition to the national debt. Every dollar borrowed by the United States government, and the real resources that dollar represents in the market place, is a dollar of real resources not available for use in private sector investment, capital formation, consumer spending, and therefore increases and improvements in the quality and standard of living of the American people.


In this sense, the government’s deficit spending that cumulatively has been increasing the national debt has made the United States that much poorer than it otherwise could have and would have been, if the dollar value of these real resources had not been siphoned off and out of use in the productive private sectors of the American economy.


What has made this less visible and less obvious to the American citizenry is precisely because it has been financed through government borrowing rather than government taxation. Deficit spending easily creates the illusion that something can be had for nothing. The government borrows “today” and can provide “benefits” to various groups in the society in the present with the appearance of no immediate “cost” or “burden” upon the citizenry.


Yet, whether acquired by taxing or borrowing, the resulting total government expenditures represent the real resources and the private sector consumption or investment spending those resources could have financed that must be foregone. There are no “free lunches,” as it has often been pointed out, and that applies to both what government borrows as much as what it more directly taxes to cover its outlays.


What makes deficit spending an attractive “path of least resistance” in the political process is precisely the fact that it enables deferring the decision of telling voter constituents by how much taxes would otherwise have to be increased, and upon whom they would fall, in the “here and now” to generate the additional revenue to pay for the spending that is financed through borrowing.[2]


But as the recent fiscal problems in a number of member nations of the European Union have highlighted, eventually there are limits to how far a government can try to hide or defer the real costs of all that it is providing or promising through its total expenditures to various voter constituent groups. Standard & Poor’s recent decision to downgrade the U.S. government’s prospective credit rating to “negative” shows clearly that what is happening in parts of Europe can happen here.


And given current projections by the Congressional Budget Office, the deficits are projected to continue indefinitely into future years and decade, with the cumulative national debt nearly doubling from its present level.[3] In addition, whether covered by taxes or deficit financing, these debt estimates do not include the federal government’s unfunded liabilities for Social Security and Medicare through most of the 21st century. In 2009, the Social Security and Medicare trust funds were estimated to have legal commitments under existing law for expenditures equal to at least $43 trillion over the next seventy-five years.[4] Others have projected this unfunded liability of the United States government to be much higher – possibly over $100 trillion.[5]


The Federal Reserve and the Economic Crisis

The responsibility for a good part of the current economic crisis must be put at the doorstep of America’s central bank, the Federal Reserve. By some measures of the money supply, the monetary aggregates (MZM or M-2) grew by fifty percent or more between 2003 and 2007. This massive flooding of the financial markets with huge amounts of liquidity provided the funds that fed the mortgage, investment, and consumer debt bubbles in the first decade of this century. Interest rates were pushed far below any historical levels.


For a good part of those five years, according to the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, the federal funds rate (the rate of interest at which banks lend to each other), when adjusted for inflation – the “real rate” – was either negative or well below two percent. In other words, the Federal Reserve supplied so much money to the banking sector that banks were lending money to each other for free for a good part of this time. It is no wonder that related market interest rates were also pushed way down during this period.[6]


Market interest rates are supposed to tell the truth. Like any other price on the market, interest rates are suppose to balance the decision of income earners to save a portion of their income with the desire of others to borrow that savings for various investment and other purposes. In addition, the rates of interest, through the present value factor, are meant to limit investment time horizons undertaken within the available savings to successfully bring the investments to completion and sustainability in the longer-term.


Due to the Fed’s policy, interest rates were not allowed to do their “job” in the market place. Indeed, Fed policy made interest rates tell “lies.” The Federal Reserve’s “easy money” policy made it appear, in terms of the cost of borrowing, that there was more than enough real resources in the economy for spending and borrowing to meet everyone’s consumer, investment and government deficit needs far in excess of the economy’s actual productive capacity.[7]


The housing bubble was indicative of this. To attract people to take out loans, banks not only lowered interest rates (and therefore the cost of borrowing), they also lowered their standards for credit worthiness. To get the money, somehow, out the door, financial institutions found “creative” ways to bundle together mortgage loans into tradable packages that they could then pass on to other investors. It seemed to minimize the risk from issuing all those sub-prime home loans, which we now see were really the housing market’s version of high-risk junk bonds. The fears were soothed by the fact that housing prices kept climbing as home buyers pushed them higher and higher with all of that newly created Federal Reserve money.


At the same time, government-created home-insurance agencies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were guaranteeing a growing number of these wobbly mortgages, with the assurance that the “full faith and credit” of Uncle Same stood behind them. By the time the Federal government formally had to take over complete control of Fannie and Freddie in 2008, they were holding the guarantees for half of the $10 trillion American housing market.[8]


Low interest rates and reduced credit standards were also feeding a huge consumer-spending boom that resulted in a 25 percent increase in consumer debt between 2003 and 2008, from $2 trillion to over $2.5 trillion. With interest rates so low, there was little incentive to save for tomorrow and big incentives to borrow and consume today. But, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, during this five-year period average real income only increased by at the most 2 percent. Peoples’ debt burdens, therefore, rose dramatically.[9]


The easy money and government-guaranteed house of cards all started to come tumbling down in the second half of 2008. The Federal Reserve’s response was to open wide the monetary spigots even more than before the bubbles burst.


The Federal Reserve has dramatically increased its balance sheet by expanding its holding of U.S. government securities and private-sector mortgage-back securities to the tune of around $2.3 trillion. Traditional Open Market Operations plus its aggressive “quantitative easing” policy have increased bank reserves from $94.1 billion in 2007 to $1.3 trillion by April 2011, for a near fourteen-fold increase, and the monetary basis in general has expanded from $850.5 billion in 2007 to $2,242.9 trillion in April of 2011, for a 260 percent increase. The monetary aggregates, MZM and M-2, respectively, have grown by 28 percent and 21.6 percent over this same period.[10]


In the name of supposedly preventing a possible price deflation in the aftermath of the economic boom, Fed policy has delayed and retarded the economy from effectively readjusting and re-coordinating the sectoral imbalances and distortions that had been generated during the bubble years.[11] Once again interest rates have been kept artificially low. In real terms, the federal funds rate and the 1-year Treasury yield have been in the negative range since the last quarter of 2009, and at the current time is estimated to be below minus two percent.


This has prevented interest rates from informing market transactors what the real savings conditions are in the economy. So, once again, the availability of savings and the real cost of borrowing is difficult to discern so as to make reasonable and rational investment decisions, and not to foster a new wave of misdirected and unsustainable private sector investment and financial decisions.


The housing market has not been allowed to fully adjust, either. With so much of the mortgage-backed securities being held off the market in the portfolio of the Federal Reserve, there is little way to determine any real market-based pricing to determine their worth or their total availability so the housing market can finally bottom out with clearer information of supply and demand conditions for a sustainable recovery.


This misguided Fed policy has been, in my view, a primary factor behind the slow and sluggish recovery of the United States economy out of the current recession.


Federal Reserve Policy and Monetizing the Debt

Many times in history, governments have used their power over the monetary printing press to create the funds needed to cover their expenses in excess of taxes collected. Sometimes this has lead to social and economic catastrophes.[12]


Monetizing the debt refers to the creation of new money to finance all or a portion of the government’s borrowing. Since the early 2008 to the present, Federal Reserve holdings of U.S. Treasuries have increased by about 240 percent, from $591 billion in March 2008 to $1.4 trillion in early May 2011, or a nearly $1 trillion increase. In the face of an additional $3.6 trillion in accumulated debt during the last three fiscal years, it might seem that Fed policy has “monetized” less than one-third of government borrowing during this period.


However, the Fed’s purchase of mortgage-backed securities, no less than its purchase of U.S. Treasuries, potentially increases the amount of reserves in the banking system available for lending. And since 2008, the Federal Reserve had bought an amount of mortgaged-backed securities that it prices on its balance sheet as being equal about $928 billion.


The $1.4 trillion increase in the monetary base since the end of 2007, from $850.5 billion to $2.2 trillion, has increased MZM measurement of the money supply by $2,161.1, or an additional $769 billion dollars in the economy above the increase in the monetary base. This is an amount that is 83 percent of the dollar value of the $927 billions in mortgage-backed securities.


Due to the “money multiplier” effect – that under fractional reserves, total new bank loans are potentially a multiple of the additional reserves injected into the banking system – it is not necessary for the Fed to purchase, dollar-for-dollar, every additional dollar of government borrowing to generate a total increase in the money supply that may be equal to the government’s deficit.


Thus, it can be argued that Fed monetary policy has succeeded, in fact, in generating an increase in the amount of money in the banking system that is equal to two-thirds of the government’s $3.6 trillion of new accumulated debt.


That the money multiplier effect has not been as great as it might have been, so far, is because the Federal Reserve has been paying interest to member banks to not lend their excess reserves. This sluggishness in potential lending has also been affected by the general “regime uncertainty” that continues to pervade the economy. This uncertainty concerns the future direction of government monetary and fiscal policy. In an economic climate in which it difficult to anticipate the future tax structure, the likely magnitude of future government borrowing, and the impact of new government programs, hesitancy exists on the part of both borrowers and lenders to take on new commitments.


But the monetary expansion has most certainly has been the factor behind the worsening problem of rising prices in the U.S. economy and the significant fall in the value of the dollar on the foreign exchange markets.


The National Debt and Monetary Policy

It is hard for Americans to think of their own country experiencing the same type of fiscal crisis that has periodically occurred in “third world” countries. That type of government financial mismanagement is supposed to only happen in what used to be called “banana republics.”


But the fact is, the U.S. is following a course of fiscal irresponsibility that may lead to highly undesirable consequences. The bottom line truth is that over the decades the government – under both Republican and Democratic leadership – has promised the American people, through a wide range of redistributive and transfer programs and other on-going budgetary commitments, more than the U.S. economy can successfully deliver without seriously damaging the country’s capacity to produce and grow through the rest of this century.


To try to continue to borrow our way out of this dilemma would be just more of the same on the road to ruin. The real resources to pay for all the governmental largess that has been promised would have to come out of either significantly higher taxes or crowding out more and more private sector access to investment funds to cover continuing budget deficits. Whether from domestic or foreign lenders, the cost of borrowing will eventually and inescapably rise. There is only so much savings in the world to fund private investment and government borrowing, particularly in a world in which developing countries are intensely trying to catch up with the industrialized nations.


Interest rates on government borrowing will rise, both because of the scarcity of the savings to go around and lenders’ concerns about America’s ability to tax enough in the future to pay back what has been borrowed. Default risk premiums need not only apply to countries like Greece.


Reliance on the Federal Reserve to “print our way” out of the dilemma through more monetary expansion is not and cannot be an answer, either. Printing paper money or creating it on computer screens at the Federal Reserve does not produce real resources. It does not increase the supply of labor or capital – the machines, tools, and equipment – out of which desired goods and services can be manufactured and provided. That only comes from work, savings and investment. Not from more green pieces of paper with presidents’ faces on them.


However, what inflation can do is:


· Accelerate the devaluation of the dollar on the foreign exchange markets, and thereby disrupting trading patterns and investment flows between the U.S. and the rest of the world;


· Reduce the value, or purchasing power, of every dollar in people’s pockets throughout the economy as prices start to rise higher and higher;


· Undermine the effectiveness of the price system to assist people as consumers and producers in making rational market decisions, due to the uneven manner in which inflation impacts of some prices first and effects others only later;


· Potentially slow down capital formation or even generate capital consumption, as inflation’s uneven effects on prices makes it difficult to calculate profit from loss;


· Distort interest rates in financial markets, creating an imbalance between savings and investment that sets in motion the boom and bust of the business cycle;


· Create incentives for people to waste their time and resources trying to find ways to hedge against inflation, rather than devote their efforts in more productive ways that improve standards of living over time;


· Bring about social tensions as people look for scapegoats to blame for the disruptive and damaging effects of inflation, rather than see its source in Federal Reserve monetary policy;


· Run the risk of political pressures to introduce distorting price and wage controls or foreign exchange regulations to fight the symptom of rising prices, rather than the source of the problem – monetary expansion.


What is To Be Done?

The bottom line is, government is too big. It spends too much, taxes too heavily, and borrows too much. For a long time, the country has been trending more and more in the direction of increasing political paternalism. Some people argue, when it is proposed to reduce the size and scope of government in our society, that this is breaking some supposed “social contract” between government and “the people.”


The only workable “social contract” for a free society is the one outlined by the American Founding Fathers in the Declaration of Independence and formalized in the Constitution of the United States. This is a social contract that recognizes that all men are created equal, with governmental privileges and favors for none, and which expects government to respect and secure each individual’s right to his life, liberty, and honestly acquired property.


The reform agenda for deficit and debt reduction, therefore, must start from that premise and have as its target a radical “downsizing” of government. That policy should plan to reduce government spending across the board in every line item of the federal budget by 10 to 15 percent each year until government has been reduced in size and scope to a level and a degree that resembles, once again, the Founding Father’s conception of a free and limited government.[13]


A first step in this fiscal reform is to not increase the national debt limit. The government should begin, now, living within its means – that is, the taxes currently collected by the Treasury. In spite of some of the rhetoric in the media, the U.S. need not run the risk of defaulting or losing its international financial credit rating. Any and all interest payments or maturing debt can be paid for out of tax receipts. What will have to be reduced are other expenditures of the government.


But the required reductions and cuts in various existing programs should be considered as the necessary “wake-up call” for everyone in America that we have been living far beyond our means. And as we begin living within those means, priorities will have to be made and trade-offs will have to be accepted as part of the transition to a smaller and more constitutionally limited government.


In addition, the power of monetary discretion must be taken out of the hands of the Federal Reserve. The fact is, central banking is a form of monetary central planning under which it is left in the hands of the members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve to “plan” the quantity of money in the economy, influence the value or purchasing power of the monetary unit, and manipulate interest rates in the loan markets.


The monetary central planners who run the Federal Reserve have no more or greater knowledge, wisdom or ability that those central planners in the old Soviet Union. The periodic recurrence of the boom and bust of the business cycle demonstrates that there is no way for them to get it right – in spite of them saying, again and again, that “next time” they will get it right.


It is what the Nobel Prize-winning, Austrian economist, Friedrich A. Hayek, once called a highly misplaced “pretense of knowledge.” That is why in a wide agenda for reform, the goal should be to move towards a market-based monetary system, the first step in such an institutional change being a commodity-backed monetary order such as a gold standard.[14]


And in the longer-run serious consideration must be given the possibilities of a monetary system completely privatized and competitive, without government control, management, or supervision.[15]


The budgetary and fiscal crisis right now has made many political issues far clearer in people’s minds. The debt dilemma is a challenge and an opportunity to set America on a freer and potentially more prosperous track, if the reality of the situation is looked at foursquare in the eye.


Otherwise, dangerous, destabilizing, and damaging monetary and fiscal times may be ahead.



End Notes



[1] The 2011 Statistical Abstract: The National Data Book (Washington, D.C., U.S. Census Bureau, 2011), Table 669.

http://www.census.gov.compendia/statab/2011/tables/11s0669.pdf.

[2] Richard M. Ebeling, Why Government Grow: The Modern Democratic Dilemma,” AIER Research Reports, Vol. LXXV, No. 14 (Great Barrington, MA: American Institute for Economic Research, August 4-18, 2008); James M. Buchanan and Richard E. Wagner, Democracy in Deficit: The Political Legacy of Lord Keynes (New York: Academic Press, 1977); and earlier, Henry Fawcett and Millicent Garrett Fawcett, Essays and Lectures on Social and Political Subjects (Honolulu, Hawaii: University Press of the Pacific, [1872] 2004), Ch. 6: “National Debts and National Prosperity,” pp. 125-153.

[3] The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2011 to 2021 (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Budget Office, January 27, 2011)

[4] Richard M. Ebeling, “Brother, Can You Spare $43 Trillion? America’s Unfunded Liabilities,” AIER Research Reports, Vol. LXXVI, No. 3 (Great Barrington, MA: American Institute for Economic Research, March 2, 2009), pp. 1-3.

[5] Michael D. Tanner, "The Coming Entitlement Tsunami." April 6, 2010. http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11666 (accessed May 5, 2011).

[6] For more details, see, Richard M. Ebeling, “The Financial Bubble was Created by Central Bank Policy,” American Institute for Economic Research, November 5, 2008, http://www.aier.org/research/briefs/667-the-financial-bubble-was-created-by-central-bank-policy (accessed on May 5, 2011).

[7] See, Richard M. Ebeling, “Market Interest Rates Need to Tell the Truth, or Why Federal Reserve Policy Tells Lies,” in Richard M. Ebeling, Timothy G. Nash, and Keith A. Pretty, eds., In Defense of Capitalism (Midland, MI: Northwood University Press, 2010) pp. 57-60; http://defenseofcapitalism.blogspot.com/2009/12/market-interest-rates-need-to-tell.html

[8] Thomas Sowell, The Housing Boom and Bust (New York: Basic Books, 2010); Johan Norberg, Financial Fiasco (Washington, D.C.: Cato Institute, 2009).

[9] Richard M. Ebeling, “Is Consumer Credit the Next Bomb in the Economic Crisis?” American Institute for Economic Research, October 22, 2008, http://www.aier.org/research/briefs/599-consumer-credit-the-next-qbombq-in-the-economic-crisis (accessed May 5, 2011).

[10] Monetary Trends (St. Louis, MO: St. Louis Federal Reserve, May 2011)

[11] See, Richard M. Ebeling, “The Hubris of Central Bankers and the Ghosts of Deflation Past” July 5, 2010, http://defenseofcapitalism.blogspot.com/2010/07/hubris-of-central-bankers-and-ghosts-of.html (accessed May 5, 2011)

[12] See, Richard M. Ebeling, “The Lasting Legacies of World War I: Big Government, Paper Money, and Inflation,” Economic Education Bulletin, Vol. XLVIII, No. 11 (Great Barrington, MA: American Institute for Economic Research, November 2008), for a detailed example of the German and Austrian instances of monetary-financed inflationary destruction following the First World War.

[13] See, Richard M. Ebeling, “The Cost of the Federal Government in a Freer America,” The Freeman: Ideas on Liberty (March 2007), pp. 2-3; http://www.thefreemanonline.org/from-the-president/the-cost-of-the-federal-government-in-a-freer-america/ (accessed May 5, 2011).

[14] See, Richard M. Ebeling, “The Gold Standard and Monetary Freedom,” March 30, 2011, http://defenseofcapitalism.blogspot.com/2011/03/gold-standard-and-monetary-freedom-by.html

[15] See, Richard M. Ebeling, “Real Banking Reform? End the Federal Reserve,” January 22, 2010, http://defenseofcapitalism.blogspot.com/2010/01/real-banking-reform-end-federal-reserve.html